"From the West to the rest": Niall Ferguson in Calgary

Murray Edwards, the media shy millionaire who co-owns Lake Louise and the Calgary Flames Hockey Club, and is said to have the largest individual stake in the oil sands, is a patron. So is Ron Mathison, who specializes in “corporate turnarounds” and is the CEO of Matco Investments. Together with their wives, they sat with Deborah Yedlin, the whip-smart business columnist for The Calgary Herald, and the night’s honoured speaker, at the final instalment of the Salon Speaker Series at Teatro Restaurant.

The featured guest was Niall Ferguson, Harvard historian and prolific author. He began his lecture with a fair warning.

“Some you may be thinking, with a certain dread that I am going to talk at tedious length about the global financial crises, and use words like leverage, credit default swaps, synthetic collateralized debt obligations squared,” he said, “But I’m not. It seems to me we hear all together too much about that. We’re so focused on the small print of this financial crisis. From a historian’s view, under the gaze of eternity, who really cares?”

Reuters Chief Lauds Canadian Caution

The newly minted global editor-at-large of Reuters, and former managing editor of The Financial Times, Chrystia Freeland, was the guest of honour at this month’s Salon Speaker Series. The invite-only function happens four or five times a year in Teatro Restaurant.

Her talk focused on risk and the global economy. She praised Canada’s cautious regulatory regime (prompting some guests to leave the restaurant in a huff), and spoke at length about the psyche of Americans.

“Ottawa sees itself as a policeman,” she said, “Rather than a farmer of the free market.”

“Canada is not top of mind in the U.S. but it could or should be more so in the near future,” she said, pointing to ‘economic stabilizers’ that are under-valued south of the border.

An Albertan herself, Freeland brought a folksy, pragmatic tone to the dinner. She opened with a story about her grand-mother. Before departing to Harvard University to study Russian history, Freeland asked her grand-mother for advice. Having lived through two world wars and the great depression, her grand-mother was less than enthusiastic about her choice to study history. You need a practical skill, she advised, that will always be in need ... the world is unpredictable.

Unpredictable, indeed. Freeland began by assessing U.S. resistance to extended health care services. It was baffling, she said, that for thousands of people who would not even be affected by this change, it would become such a divisive issue. It is the end of the American era, she said, despite the fervent belief of most Americans that they have a God-given right to rule the planet. She pointed to the necessity of international experience in the workforce, and the lack thereof in the previous generation of executives.

Freeland also spent a great deal of time talking about Europe. The EU is wholly preoccupied with worry over Greece, she said. At a recent meeting in the Arctic, she said, Canadian Minister Jim Flaherty, along with the American and Japanese delegate, took a tour of igloos while the EU
representatives huddled together in a corner talking about Greece. But the idea that this most recent crises is the fault of Goldman Sachs, she says, is ludicrous. “It’s the Greek government’s fault.”

Turning back to the United States, she said, “Even for a Canadian Tory, Obama is not what you’d call big government.’

Although there were a few people in the crowd re-thinking their subscription to FT, the response overall was positive. The speech came after a three-course meal of gnocchi l’amatriciana, arctic char with caramelized endive, and a selection of small pastries.

Among the guests were Geoff Pradella, vice president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Tony Luppino, former executive director of the Art Gallery of Alberta, Randy Pettipas, president of Global Public Affairs, attorney and patron of the arts Greg Forrest, McCarthy
Tétrault's Director of clients and markets Lindsay Fikowski, former bureau chief for the Financial Post Claudia Cattaneo, John Cordeau Q.C. of Bennet Jones and his sister Elizabeth Cordeau-Chatelain of Total.

Published in National Post, March 27 2010
Photo by Adrian Shellard

Rosenberg Talks Risk at Teatro

David Rosenberg was the guest of honour at the latest Salon Speaker Series event in Calgary.

The theme for this season is Risk and the Global Economy. It’s a topic with which Rosenberg, who left Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York to join the Canadian firm Gluskin Sheif earlier this year, is intimately familiar.

After a champagne reception and impressive three-course meal at the posh Teatro Restaurant, guests settled in for the main event. Salon speakers are requested to make opening comments, unscripted, for approximately 30 - 40 minutes before taking questions from the audience. The generous portions of lamb with caramelized root vegetables had barely been cleared, the mouth-watering array of sweets hardly explored, when Rosenberg launched into his monologue.

Dubbed the ‘double dip guy’ by at least one guest (because of his two-pronged recovery forecast), Rosenberg prompted a rush of murmurs with his opening: “You have to make your bets against the consensus,” he proclaimed, “The consensus gets it wrong about eighty percent of the time. But maybe this year is one of those times the consensus actually gets it right … right now the consensus is on some sort of v-shaped recovery.”

He was quick to win over his audience and declare his intentions.

“I am a financial market economist,” he said, “I’m a Wall Street guy and I’m a Bay Street guy. I’m here to talk about how to take the economics…what it means for your investments, and how to stay out of trouble. It’s about how much risk you want to take on, in order to get your return.”

True to the evening’s theme, Rosenberg’s talk centered on risky endeavors. First there was the Obama-Bernake analysis. Calling the United States economy a “fiscal train wreck,” he predicted that the sanctioning of a low dollar would boost their economy, promote exports, and protect balance payments. Then there was full-blown derision for the equities market, which he claimed “as a culture is dead”.

A director of Gluskin Sheif and regular Salon Series patron, Wilf Gobert, agrees on both counts.

“What he’s saying is that people are so focused on equities as the only investment,” Gobert said, “But the reality is that there are a lot of different investments available, including gold and bonds. And the attractiveness of alternative investment has grown, as a means of diversification in asset risk.”

Unsurprised by much of what Rosenberg had to say, Gobert says the economist “can be bullish at times,” citing his optimistic perspective on commodities (and therefore commodity equities) but agrees with his assessment of the American dollar.

“He’s bearish on currency because it’s the only major policy lever left in US government to try to stimulate their economy,” Gobert said.

And what does this mean for Canada, and more to the point, Alberta?

“Like all exporters in Canada, a low US dollar hurts the oil patch,” explains Randy Pettipas, president of Global Public Affairs and a regular guest of the Salon Series, “Your expenses are in Canadian dollars and your revenues in US dollars. It's worth noting though, that historically as the US dollar weakens the price of oil rises providing some compensation.”

Other guests at the function included D’Arcy Levesque of Enbridge, John Cordeau, Q.C. of Bennett Jones LLP, Dave MacInnis of Chevron Canada Ltd, Mark Kryzan of Shaunessy Investment Counsel, Jim Palmer of Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP, Wouter Raemdonck of Total E&P Canada Ltd, David Bercuson of the University of Calgary, and Nicholas Kohler, Calgary Bureau Chief for MacLean’s Magazine. Rudyard Griffiths, co-founder of the series, skipped the event to be with his wife and new-born baby in Toronto.

Published in National Post, November 28 2009
Photo by Adrian Shellard.

Woodward Woos Teatro

Another heady season at the salon is over. Last week brought a final gathering of Calgary’s cultural elite and intelligentsia to Teatro Restaurant for the last in speaker series on “The Race to the White House and Beyond.” Infamous investigative journalist Bob Woodward was the guest of honour.

Well known for uncovering the Watergate scandal, and introduced by Rudyard Griffiths as a “chronicler of our time”, Woodward focused his remarks on the role of journalism in a democracy, and his personal recollections of the Bush administration. But he began with a different race to the Oval Office, way back when Al Gore was a contender.

“Having dinner with Al Gore is unpleasant,” Woodward said dryly. There was laughter and the clink of glasses as the audience took another swig of Tegrino Vin Santo. “There is not one pleasant thing about it,” he confirmed, “It is taxing. He is absolutely sure he knows everything about every subject.”

Yet there was some wisdom Woodward did accept at face value: Gore told him that only one percent of what goes on in the White House is public knowledge. Years later, it was clear that little more than that was even executive knowledge, when George W. Bush told him he did not attend many of the early meetings on the Iraq war.

“We’ve seen a staggering increase in the level of violence in Iraq - almost incomprehensible - and George Bush was out there asking if we were winning, not for months but for years!” Woodward charged, “The idea that the commander-in-chief would absent himself from those meetings … I felt sick. Sick for my country. The president had lost control. He didn’t know what was real; he didn’t have a grasp on it.”

And thus began his treatise on the role of the press in a liberal democracy, complete with mea culpa on the coverage of the Iraq war. “Media drives them toward accountability,” he said.

The questions ranged from ironic - Tom Flanagan asking about barriers to accessing Canadian politicians - to the cheeky - Carlo Bellusci asked, “Isn’t it true that if governments weren’t so secretive, you’d be out of a job? And don’t people want to just kind of tune all this out and go to the cottage?”

Woodward took it all in stride, concluding on a truly diplomatic note: “Obama thinks he’s restored moral authority to the White House, just as Bush though he’d restored dignity. I say, we’ll see. You can be so sure of something, then time passes, you do your homework, and things look very different.”

The Salon Speaker Series at Teatro will resume in Autumn 2009.

Guests dined on a mouthwatering preserved lemon risotto, the classic Alberta beef tenderloin, and a dainty selection of mignardises. Among those in attendance were: the camera-shy Murray Edwards, University of Calgary’s Barry Cooper, Greg Forrest, John Cordeau of Bennett Jones, Randy Pettipas of Global Public Affairs, Dina and George Honke, energy analyst Wilf Gobert, and Timothy Hamilton, managing partner of Hamilton Hall Soles/ Ray & Berndtson Inc.

Published in National Post, May 9 2009

Maybe Obama isn’t so bad after all, says Bill Kristol

Last week, Teatro restaurant welcomed William Kristol for the third gathering of the 2008/2009 Salon Speaker Series, a dinner meeting of top intellectuals in Calgary held roughly every month. The affair attracts quite a crowd, impressed by the gourmet fare (sponsored by Enbridge), free-flowing libations (generously provided by Vendemmia Wines and Fieldstone Capitol), and witty, fervent discussions. Bennett Jones LLP is the series sponsor, with Global Public Affairs, National Post, Ron Mathison, and Coril Holdings Ltd. also pitching in.

On the guest list are James and Barbara Palmer, Bill and Sharon Siebens, lawyer Gregory Forrest, managing partner for Bennett Jones LLP Perry Spitznagel, Enbridge'sD'Arcy Levesque, director of the Institute for United States Policy Research Dr. Stephen Randall, president of Calgary Zoo Clement Lanthier, president of Global Public Affairs Randy Pettipas, and of course, the directors of the Salon Series, Rudyard Griffiths and Patrick Luciani.

Kristol, a far-right leaning columnist based in Washington D.C., holds a doctoral degree from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He jumpstarted his political career in the early 1980’s, working for the Regan and H. W. Bush administrations, as well as think tank “Project for the Republican Future”. In 1994, he founded The Weekly Standard, a highly influential – and Conservative – magazine, which he continues to edit. Last year he became an op-ed writer for The New York Times, and in the year to come he will appear monthly in The Washington Post. Kristol also appears regularly on Fox News.

Given all this, his comments after a sweeping Democratic victory in the last American election might have been predictable. But they were not. Kristol is actually very impressed by his new president, and believes he will govern as a centrist.

A week before his Calgary appearance, Kristol and a handful of conservative columnists dined with the new president at a private dinner party. “He might not have been washed in the blood of the lamb, but he touched the hem,” joked Tom Flanagan.

His personal impressions were positive. “Impressive, intelligent, thoughtful,” he said of President Obama, “He would listen to you and understand your objections to his point of view. He reminded me of moderate law professors I’ve met. He’s very calm. He was refreshingly normal and conversational, and that bodes well for him as president.”

Still, he joked, since the inauguration he’s been yearning for a place more conservative than his own country, and so he came up to Canada. There was an appreciative chuckle, but the comment also raised eyebrows. In this city, a newly appointed senate and “big spenders” budget are causing many to wonder if conservatism is not taking a hit across the continent. Even if that is the case, says Kristol, all is not lost.

Commenting on the weakened state of the Republican Party in the US he said, “I think it’s going to be helpful, ultimately. There will be a reinvigoration of conservative ideas. What you need as a minority like this is some chaos, some bitter debates. It would be helpful for the party.”

Published in National Post, January 31 2009