David Rosenberg was the guest of honour at the latest Salon Speaker Series event in Calgary.
The theme for this season is Risk and the Global Economy. It’s a topic with which Rosenberg, who left Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York to join the Canadian firm Gluskin Sheif earlier this year, is intimately familiar.
After a champagne reception and impressive three-course meal at the posh Teatro Restaurant, guests settled in for the main event. Salon speakers are requested to make opening comments, unscripted, for approximately 30 - 40 minutes before taking questions from the audience. The generous portions of lamb with caramelized root vegetables had barely been cleared, the mouth-watering array of sweets hardly explored, when Rosenberg launched into his monologue.
Dubbed the ‘double dip guy’ by at least one guest (because of his two-pronged recovery forecast), Rosenberg prompted a rush of murmurs with his opening: “You have to make your bets against the consensus,” he proclaimed, “The consensus gets it wrong about eighty percent of the time. But maybe this year is one of those times the consensus actually gets it right … right now the consensus is on some sort of v-shaped recovery.”
He was quick to win over his audience and declare his intentions.
“I am a financial market economist,” he said, “I’m a Wall Street guy and I’m a Bay Street guy. I’m here to talk about how to take the economics…what it means for your investments, and how to stay out of trouble. It’s about how much risk you want to take on, in order to get your return.”
True to the evening’s theme, Rosenberg’s talk centered on risky endeavors. First there was the Obama-Bernake analysis. Calling the United States economy a “fiscal train wreck,” he predicted that the sanctioning of a low dollar would boost their economy, promote exports, and protect balance payments. Then there was full-blown derision for the equities market, which he claimed “as a culture is dead”.
A director of Gluskin Sheif and regular Salon Series patron, Wilf Gobert, agrees on both counts.
“What he’s saying is that people are so focused on equities as the only investment,” Gobert said, “But the reality is that there are a lot of different investments available, including gold and bonds. And the attractiveness of alternative investment has grown, as a means of diversification in asset risk.”
Unsurprised by much of what Rosenberg had to say, Gobert says the economist “can be bullish at times,” citing his optimistic perspective on commodities (and therefore commodity equities) but agrees with his assessment of the American dollar.
“He’s bearish on currency because it’s the only major policy lever left in US government to try to stimulate their economy,” Gobert said.
And what does this mean for Canada, and more to the point, Alberta?
“Like all exporters in Canada, a low US dollar hurts the oil patch,” explains Randy Pettipas, president of Global Public Affairs and a regular guest of the Salon Series, “Your expenses are in Canadian dollars and your revenues in US dollars. It's worth noting though, that historically as the US dollar weakens the price of oil rises providing some compensation.”
Other guests at the function included D’Arcy Levesque of Enbridge, John Cordeau, Q.C. of Bennett Jones LLP, Dave MacInnis of Chevron Canada Ltd, Mark Kryzan of Shaunessy Investment Counsel, Jim Palmer of Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP, Wouter Raemdonck of Total E&P Canada Ltd, David Bercuson of the University of Calgary, and Nicholas Kohler, Calgary Bureau Chief for MacLean’s Magazine. Rudyard Griffiths, co-founder of the series, skipped the event to be with his wife and new-born baby in Toronto.
Published in National Post, November 28 2009
Photo by Adrian Shellard.
The theme for this season is Risk and the Global Economy. It’s a topic with which Rosenberg, who left Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York to join the Canadian firm Gluskin Sheif earlier this year, is intimately familiar.
After a champagne reception and impressive three-course meal at the posh Teatro Restaurant, guests settled in for the main event. Salon speakers are requested to make opening comments, unscripted, for approximately 30 - 40 minutes before taking questions from the audience. The generous portions of lamb with caramelized root vegetables had barely been cleared, the mouth-watering array of sweets hardly explored, when Rosenberg launched into his monologue.
Dubbed the ‘double dip guy’ by at least one guest (because of his two-pronged recovery forecast), Rosenberg prompted a rush of murmurs with his opening: “You have to make your bets against the consensus,” he proclaimed, “The consensus gets it wrong about eighty percent of the time. But maybe this year is one of those times the consensus actually gets it right … right now the consensus is on some sort of v-shaped recovery.”
He was quick to win over his audience and declare his intentions.
“I am a financial market economist,” he said, “I’m a Wall Street guy and I’m a Bay Street guy. I’m here to talk about how to take the economics…what it means for your investments, and how to stay out of trouble. It’s about how much risk you want to take on, in order to get your return.”
True to the evening’s theme, Rosenberg’s talk centered on risky endeavors. First there was the Obama-Bernake analysis. Calling the United States economy a “fiscal train wreck,” he predicted that the sanctioning of a low dollar would boost their economy, promote exports, and protect balance payments. Then there was full-blown derision for the equities market, which he claimed “as a culture is dead”.
A director of Gluskin Sheif and regular Salon Series patron, Wilf Gobert, agrees on both counts.
“What he’s saying is that people are so focused on equities as the only investment,” Gobert said, “But the reality is that there are a lot of different investments available, including gold and bonds. And the attractiveness of alternative investment has grown, as a means of diversification in asset risk.”
Unsurprised by much of what Rosenberg had to say, Gobert says the economist “can be bullish at times,” citing his optimistic perspective on commodities (and therefore commodity equities) but agrees with his assessment of the American dollar.
“He’s bearish on currency because it’s the only major policy lever left in US government to try to stimulate their economy,” Gobert said.
And what does this mean for Canada, and more to the point, Alberta?
“Like all exporters in Canada, a low US dollar hurts the oil patch,” explains Randy Pettipas, president of Global Public Affairs and a regular guest of the Salon Series, “Your expenses are in Canadian dollars and your revenues in US dollars. It's worth noting though, that historically as the US dollar weakens the price of oil rises providing some compensation.”
Other guests at the function included D’Arcy Levesque of Enbridge, John Cordeau, Q.C. of Bennett Jones LLP, Dave MacInnis of Chevron Canada Ltd, Mark Kryzan of Shaunessy Investment Counsel, Jim Palmer of Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP, Wouter Raemdonck of Total E&P Canada Ltd, David Bercuson of the University of Calgary, and Nicholas Kohler, Calgary Bureau Chief for MacLean’s Magazine. Rudyard Griffiths, co-founder of the series, skipped the event to be with his wife and new-born baby in Toronto.
Published in National Post, November 28 2009
Photo by Adrian Shellard.
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