'McCain let chances pass him by'

That other election, south of the border and looming large in our imaginations, is the topic of this year’s Teatro Speaker Series. Each month, pundits and provocateurs from the United States draw a good-sized crowd of Canadian cultured intelligentsia, eager to sink their claws into the weighty topics of tomorrow. October’s speaker was Michael Barone, alumnus of Yale Law School, former V.P. of polling firm Peter D. Hart Research Associates, author of four books on American politics, syndicated columnist for The Washington Post, and on-air anchor for the Fox News Channel.

A champagne reception and three-course meal preceded Barone’s speech. Guests dined on autumn pumpkin soup and short rib ravioli, paired with a dry red wine, the Bruno Rocca Dolcetto d’Alba. The dinner was hosted by Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP and David Bissett. Investment firm Gluskin Sheff hosted the reception. National Post, Global Public Affairs, Bennett Jones LLP, Enbridge, Vendemmia Wines, and Fieldstone Capital are regular sponsors of the event.

Jim Palmer, a well known philanthropist and lawyer who is set to receive an induction into the Calgary Business Hall of Fame this month, was among the prominent guests in attendance. Others included academics Dr. Barry Cooper, who provided the keynote’s introduction, and Dr. Tom Flanagan, both from the University of Calgary, Bill and Sharon Siebens, Randy Pettipas, president of Global Public Affairs, Ben Brunnen of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Margo Helper, national executive director of The Seeds Foundation, and Elizabeth Cordeau-Chatelain of Total E&P Canada.

Campaign strategy, financial turmoil, racial politics, and generation gaps were high on Barone’s list of talking points. He also touched on subjects closer to Canadian pocketbooks, namely NAFTA and the future of cross-border energy imports. Much of his talk, though, was devoted to why and how McCain bungled his chances at becoming the next President. Economic distress plays heavily, according to Barone.

“Affluent voters tend to punish the Republic party when there is wealth destruction under a Republican president,” he said, citing George H. W. Bush’s decline in California and New Hampshire when housing prices dropped considerably there in the late 1980s.

The demographics have changed since then as well, he noted. The United States is witnessing the first presidential nominee born outside the social confines of segregation. Obama’s youthful charisma and nuanced views on race endear him to voters and present a stark contrast to the current administration.

Despite these obstacles for John McCain, his success could have been clinched early, Barone argued, given the Democrat’s soft record on mortgage giants Fannie May and Freddie Mac. The protracted struggle between Obama and Clinton in the primaries was another chance for Republicans to further divide (and conquer) their opposition.

While the polls thus far indicate an Obama victory, a twenty-five year career in research, and a life-long love affair with numbers give Barone a nuanced view.

“It’s an art not a science. Tolstoy knew people better in War and Peace than a pollster could ever know”

Published in National Post, November 8 2008
Photo by Adrian Shellard, for National Post